Projeção anomalia temperatura
- Created by
- Renato Passos, Eng. de Software
- Reviewed by
- Renato Passos, Eng. de Software
Last updated: Apr 18, 2026
Formula
~0.04°C/ano
About this calculator
The Temperature Anomaly Projection estimates global warming up to 2100 based on historical data and emission scenarios. It uses a linear warming formula (~0.04°C/year) aligned with RCP 8.5, representing the highest emissions scenario. It's useful for climate research, policy planning, and environmental impact analysis.
The projection accounts for cumulative warming trends, estimating a 2.5°C to 4°C range by the end of the century. The formula (~0.04°C/year) is simplified but serves as a baseline for climate scenario understanding. Results should be combined with complex climate models for greater accuracy.
Use it in educational contexts or to contextualize scientific reports. Remember RCP 8.5 is a high-emission scenario, not necessarily the most probable path. Policy updates and technological advances may reduce warming trajectories. For detailed applications, consult models like CMIP6, which include variables like albedo, methane emissions, and natural feedbacks.
This tool provides guidance only and doesn't replace regional impact analyses or dynamic climate simulations. Always cross-reference with updated climate studies and local adaptation strategies for comprehensive planning.
Frequently asked questions
What's the scientific basis for the 2.5-4°C projection by 2100?
This range comes from IPCC (AR6) studies modeling warming under RCP 8.5, a high greenhouse gas emission scenario until the end of the century.
Is the 0.04°C/year formula accurate?
It's a simplified approximation. Real climate models consider variables like ice feedbacks, albedo, and methane emissions that can alter warming rates.
How to use this calculator in educational studies?
It can contextualize climate reports, show warming trends, and serve as a basis for mitigation policy discussions.
Is there a difference between RCP 8.5 and other scenarios like RCP 4.5?
Yes. RCP 4.5 represents emission reductions from mid-century onward, while RCP 8.5 maintains high emissions for longer.
Can I apply this projection to regional scales?
Not directly. The projection is a global average; regional variations depend on factors like latitude, ocean currents, and topography.